ICES ASC 2023 – Bilbao, Spain
Growing focus on spatial management (BBNJ,30x30)
Trade-offs are critical area of research
More protection \(\approx\) more conservation
At what cost?
Science of MPA outcomes largely based on simulations 1
Quality of advice depends then on simulations being reasonably realistic
Ovando et al. 2023 reply to Sala et al 2020
marlin Modelmarlin ModelSimultaneously simulate…
N age-structured populations
Larval & adult dispersal governed by habitat gradients (CTMC)
Lots of life history bells & whistles
N fleets targeting one or more of simulated species
Species-specific selectivity, price, etc.
Allocate in space and time based on range of possible economic and regulatory factors
Given three species and one fleet, randomly draw…
fishing mortality
adult and larval movement rates and density dependence timing
lots of other economic and environmental attributes
Then apply no-take MPAs…
Of different sizes
With different design strategies
Policies have complex effects in social-ecological systems, particularly the less direct they are
Overly simple models can produce unreliable projections of conservation and food security outcomes
Models that reasonably capture complexity and dynamism of open oceans needed to make objectives like BBNJ effective
Next generation of MPA science needs to confront models with data
Be on the lookout for marlin paper sometime in the next year (fingers crossed)
Check out the model at
https://danovando.github.io/marlin/
email: dovando@iattc.org
github: danovando
twitter: @danovand0
website: danovando.com